Bahia 2-0 Sport Recife — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 Dec 2025

Bahia
2-0 HT 1-0
Sport Recife
📅04/12/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Bahia vs Sport Recife Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
73%
1.22
Draw
18%
5.71
Away
9%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.61
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.95
No
47%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.7
2-3 Goals
36%
2.05
4-5 Goals
27%
2.57
6+ Goals
13%
5.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.38
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
6%
24.0
X/1 EV+ ✗
27%
3.9
X/2
3%
24.0
X/X
9%
9.6
2/1
7%
21.8
2/2
3%
20.5
2/X
4%
28.5
Value flag · X/1 at 3.9 — our 27% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
73%
Home Win
77%
-4.7pp
19%
Draw
14%
+4.1pp
9%
Away Win
8%
+0.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.5pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Sport Recife — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 11%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -6%
1.99/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.92
-8% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -2%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
423 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 78%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
15.7 Crosses 15.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4

Bahia vs Sport Recife Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sport Recife
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.65 xG 0.72
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
360 Passes 282
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
02.08.2025 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
23.02.2023 Sport Recife Sport Recife 6-0 HT 3-0 Bahia Bahia BRCDN
13.09.2022 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR2
09.06.2022 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
05.03.2022 Bahia Bahia 2-3 HT 0-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BRCDN
19.11.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1

Bahia 2-0 Sport Recife — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
2-0
AWAY Sport Recife
3.14 xG 0.30
62% Ball Possession 38%
27 Total Shots 7
13 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
537 Passes 308
89% Pass Accuracy 85%
53 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Sport Recife
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia got the better of Sport Recife 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 73%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bahia had 62% of the ball to Sport Recife's 38%, shots finished 27-7, expected goals 3.14 to 0.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sport Recife led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Bahia and 1.83 for Sport Recife.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Sport Recife?

Bahia 2-0 Sport Recife in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Sport Recife?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 73%, with the full match-result split Bahia 73%, draw 19%, Sport Recife 9%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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