Flamengo 1-0 Ceara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 Dec 2025

📅04/12/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.29
Draw
19%
4.95
Away
15%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.13
No
49%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
4.11
2-3 Goals
43%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
9.12
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.11 — our 26% vs market 19.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.47
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
7%
23.1
X/1
30%
3.72
X/2
8%
21.4
X/X
6%
7.69
2/1
12%
24.45
2/2
4%
19.7
2/X
6%
28.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
73%
-7.4pp
19%
Draw
17%
+1.9pp
15%
Away Win
10%
+5.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
43%
+8.6pp
49%
BTTS No
57%
-8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceara EU Bookmakers 12%
-7% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
1.93/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.50
+10% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +27%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
434 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 76%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
21.8 Crosses 17.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Flamengo
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Ceara
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.58 xG 0.89
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
472 Passes 244
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 3
04.08.2025 Ceara Ceara 1-1 HT 0-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
04.09.2022 Flamengo Flamengo 1-1 HT 0-1 Ceara Ceara BR1
14.05.2022 Ceara Ceara 2-2 HT 1-2 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
01.12.2021 Flamengo Flamengo 2-1 HT 1-0 Ceara Ceara BR1
22.08.2021 Ceara Ceara 1-1 HT 1-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
10.01.2021 Flamengo Flamengo 0-2 HT 0-1 Ceara Ceara BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
1-0
AWAY Ceara
1.52 xG 0.02
69% Ball Possession 31%
15 Total Shots 1
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
670 Passes 248
92% Pass Accuracy 80%
36 Box Touches 5
22 Crosses 16
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Ceara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo edged past Ceara 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Flamengo had 69% of the ball to Ceara's 31%, shots finished 15-1, expected goals 1.52 to 0.02 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Flamengo's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Flamengo and 1.33 for Ceara.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Ceara?

Flamengo 1-0 Ceara in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Ceara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 66%, draw 19%, Ceara 15%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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