Fortaleza 2-1 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 Dec 2025

📅04/12/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.54
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.48
6+ Goals
8%
24.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.54 — our 34% vs market 32.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.57
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.6
X/1
18%
4.28
X/2
9%
8.31
X/X
12%
4.21
2/1
10%
28.5
2/2
10%
7.12
2/X
8%
16.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-2.3pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.6pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+1.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.6pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians EU Bookmakers 26%
+6% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.52/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.34
-1% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
325 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 79%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
21.2 Crosses 15.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Corinthians
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.03 xG 1.55
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
255 Passes 378
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
03.08.2025 Corinthians Corinthians 1-1 HT 0-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
25.09.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 3-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza CSA
18.09.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-2 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians CSA
25.08.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
05.05.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 0-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
04.10.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 2-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians CON CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
2-1
AWAY Corinthians
1.13 xG 2.26
30% Ball Possession 70%
10 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 7
184 Passes 502
74% Pass Accuracy 91%
12 Box Touches 28
3 Crosses 30
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Corinthians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza nicked a narrow win over Corinthians 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fortaleza as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fortaleza had 30% of the ball to Corinthians's 70%, shots finished 10-20, expected goals 1.13 to 2.26 — the balance of chances actually favoured Corinthians.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fortaleza and 1.00 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Corinthians?

Fortaleza 2-1 Corinthians in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 48%, draw 28%, Corinthians 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortaleza) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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