Sao Paulo 3-0 Internacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 Dec 2025

📅04/12/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.68
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.21
6+ Goals
10%
20.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 32% vs market 30.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
3.83
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
14%
5.53
X/2
15%
5.88
X/X
16%
4.08
2/1
10%
32.0
2/2
15%
4.21
2/X
7%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-1.6pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.7pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+2.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.0pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Internacional EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -7%
1.52/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.16
+15% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 80%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
18.8 Crosses 17.3
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Internacional
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.81 xG 0.87
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
385 Passes 343
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 4
04.08.2025 Internacional Internacional 1-2 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
23.09.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-3 HT 1-1 Internacional Internacional BR1
14.06.2024 Internacional Internacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
14.09.2023 Internacional Internacional 2-1 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
07.05.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 1-0 Internacional Internacional BR1
09.11.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-1 HT 0-1 Internacional Internacional BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
3-0
AWAY Internacional
1.47 xG 0.54
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
317 Passes 226
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Internacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo ran out comfortable winners over Internacional 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 36%) promised a tight game; Sao Paulo found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 56% of the ball to Internacional's 44%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.47 to 0.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Internacional led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.17 for Internacional.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Internacional?

Sao Paulo 3-0 Internacional in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Internacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 36%, draw 29%, Internacional 36%. The final score 3-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/29/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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