Atletico Mineiro 0-3 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 Dec 2025

📅04/12/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.08
Draw
24%
3.04
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.64
Over 2.5
53%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.88
No
44%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.65
2-3 Goals
36%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
4.27
6+ Goals
10%
21.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.27 — our 25% vs market 17.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
5.25
1/2
8%
29.5
1/X
6%
13.55
X/1
8%
6.89
X/2
11%
5.03
X/X
12%
3.99
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2
23%
3.21
2/X
6%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
29%
+5.2pp
24%
Draw
30%
-5.3pp
41%
Away Win
41%
+0.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
57%
-9.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
43%
+9.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
49%
+6.5pp
44%
BTTS No
51%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 45%
-13% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.58/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.22
+6% / -53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -4%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
266 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 80%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
17.7 Crosses 20.3
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Palmeiras
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.58 xG 1.93
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
313 Passes 304
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
8 Box Touches 26
10 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.07.2025 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-2 HT 1-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
29.09.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
18.06.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-4 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
20.10.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
10.08.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro LKU
03.08.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 0-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
0-3
AWAY Palmeiras
1.91 xG 2.43
65% Ball Possession 35%
33 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 6
391 Passes 176
88% Pass Accuracy 74%
38 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras cruised past Atletico Mineiro 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 65% of the ball to Palmeiras's 35%, shots finished 33-12, expected goals 1.91 to 2.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.67 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Palmeiras?

Atletico Mineiro 0-3 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 34%, draw 24%, Palmeiras 41%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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