Fortaleza CEIF 1-2 Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 4 Dec 2025

📅04/12/2025 · 🕒02:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.91
Over 2.5
39%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.66
No
57%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-1.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+1.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
48%
+12.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
52%
-12.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
56%
-13.5pp
57%
BTTS No
44%
+13.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 38%
+8% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +26%
0.96/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/0.96
-7% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 75%
15.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
13.5 Crosses 16.4
3.4 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza CEIF
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Santa Fe
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.76 xG 0.97
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
311 Passes 200
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
14 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2025 Santa Fe Santa Fe 3-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
24.08.2025 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 2-0 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
09.03.2025 Santa Fe Santa Fe 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
22.09.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 1-3 HT 0-1 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
10.03.2024 Santa Fe Santa Fe 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza CEIF
1-2
AWAY Santa Fe
1.32 xG 1.75
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
262 Passes 346
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Fortaleza CEIF vs Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Fe squeezed past Fortaleza CEIF 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; Santa Fe found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fortaleza CEIF had 44% of the ball to Santa Fe's 56%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.32 to 1.75.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Santa Fe led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Fortaleza CEIF and 2.00 for Santa Fe.

What was the final score of Fortaleza CEIF vs Santa Fe?

Fortaleza CEIF 1-2 Santa Fe in the Colombia - Primera on 04/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza CEIF vs Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza CEIF win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza CEIF 36%, draw 28%, Santa Fe 36%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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