ACR Messina 1-3 Audace Cerignola — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 5 Jan 2025

📅05/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.87
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
51%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.74
Over 2.5
49%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.73
2-3 Goals
32%
1.71
4-5 Goals
24%
3.83
6+ Goals
11%
17.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
24%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
22%
+1.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
51%
Away Win
52%
-0.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
54%
-2.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
46%
+2.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.6pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ACR Messina EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Audace Cerignola EU Bookmakers 56%
+9% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.06/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/0.39
+11% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +103%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
290 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.9 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ACR Messina
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Audace Cerignola
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.08.2024 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola 2-0 HT 1-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
07.01.2024 ACR Messina ACR Messina 1-2 HT 0-0 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola İTC
02.09.2023 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola 2-2 HT 1-1 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
05.02.2023 ACR Messina ACR Messina 0-1 HT 0-1 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola İTC
08.10.2022 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola 3-0 HT 1-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ACR Messina
1-3
AWAY Audace Cerignola
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH ACR Messina vs Audace Cerignola
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Audace Cerignola beat ACR Messina 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Audace Cerignola as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, ACR Messina had 55% of the ball to Audace Cerignola's 45%, shots finished 8-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Audace Cerignola led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for ACR Messina and 2.00 for Audace Cerignola.

What was the final score of ACR Messina vs Audace Cerignola?

ACR Messina 1-3 Audace Cerignola in the Italy - Serie C on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ACR Messina vs Audace Cerignola?

Before kick-off our model rated an Audace Cerignola win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split ACR Messina 23%, draw 26%, Audace Cerignola 51%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Audace Cerignola), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Audace Cerignola) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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