SPAL 1-1 Perugia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 5 Jan 2025

SPAL
1-1 HT 0-0
Perugia
📅05/01/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
36%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.51
2-3 Goals
41%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
4.21
6+ Goals
8%
21.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-3.0pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.6pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+6.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.4pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SPAL EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Perugia EU Bookmakers 33%
-26% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.05/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.45
-13% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SPAL
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Perugia
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.77 xG 1.38
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
313 Passes 187
74% Pass Accuracy 61%
16 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.08.2024 Perugia Perugia 3-0 HT 1-0 SPAL SPAL İTC
21.01.2024 Perugia Perugia 3-1 HT 0-1 SPAL SPAL İTC
15.09.2023 SPAL SPAL 1-2 HT 1-2 Perugia Perugia İTC
30.04.2023 SPAL SPAL 1-1 HT 0-1 Perugia Perugia İTB
08.12.2022 Perugia Perugia 0-0 HT 0-0 SPAL SPAL İTB
16.03.2022 Perugia Perugia 1-1 HT 0-0 SPAL SPAL İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SPAL
1-1
AWAY Perugia
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 28
2 Shots on Target 11
3 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH SPAL vs Perugia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SPAL and Perugia shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, SPAL had 40% of the ball to Perugia's 60%, shots finished 7-28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Perugia led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for SPAL and 1.67 for Perugia.

What was the final score of SPAL vs Perugia?

SPAL 1-1 Perugia in the Italy - Serie C on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SPAL vs Perugia?

Before kick-off our model rated a SPAL win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split SPAL 38%, draw 26%, Perugia 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (SPAL), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SPAL) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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