Sao Joao Ver 1-0 Trofense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 5 Jan 2025

📅05/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
44%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.62
Over 2.5
43%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
+0.2pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.3pp
44%
Away Win
42%
+2.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
58%
-0.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
42%
+0.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.7pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Joao Ver EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Trofense EU Bookmakers 46%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.62/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.03
-54% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +14%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
320 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Joao Ver
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Trofense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
15.09.2024 Trofense Trofense 1-1 HT 1-1 Sao Joao Ver Sao Joao Ver POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Joao Ver
1-0
AWAY Trofense
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sao Joao Ver vs Trofense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Joao Ver squeezed past Trofense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Trofense at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sao Joao Ver had 45% of the ball to Trofense's 55%, shots finished 8-15.

What was the final score of Sao Joao Ver vs Trofense?

Sao Joao Ver 1-0 Trofense in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Joao Ver vs Trofense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Trofense win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sao Joao Ver 30%, draw 26%, Trofense 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Trofense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Trofense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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