Sporting CP II 4-1 Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 5 Jan 2025

📅05/01/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.2pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.7pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+2.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.7pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP II EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Caldas EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +2%
1.85/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.56
+49% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / -19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
344 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP II
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Caldas
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
13.09.2024 Caldas Caldas 1-2 HT 1-1 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II POR3
30.03.2024 Caldas Caldas 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II POR3
09.03.2024 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II 3-0 HT 3-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
14.01.2024 Caldas Caldas 1-0 HT 1-0 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II POR3
30.09.2023 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II 1-3 HT 0-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
11.03.2023 Sporting CP II Sporting CP II 3-2 HT 1-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP II
4-1
AWAY Caldas
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sporting CP II vs Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP II swept aside Caldas 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sporting CP II as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Sporting CP II had 36% of the ball to Caldas's 64%, shots finished 10-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sporting CP II and 1.33 for Caldas.

What was the final score of Sporting CP II vs Caldas?

Sporting CP II 4-1 Caldas in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP II vs Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP II win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP II 42%, draw 25%, Caldas 33%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP II) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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