Fafe 1-0 Sporting Braga II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 5 Jan 2025

📅05/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.86
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
30%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
9%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
50%
-10.0pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.6pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-2.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+2.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.3pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fafe EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga II EU Bookmakers 27%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.01/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.20
-26% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
331 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fafe
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Sporting Braga II
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.09.2024 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II 2-0 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
19.01.2024 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II 0-0 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
08.10.2023 Fafe Fafe 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II POR3
04.02.2023 Fafe Fafe 1-4 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II POR3
23.10.2022 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II 0-1 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fafe
1-0
AWAY Sporting Braga II
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 0
12 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fafe vs Sporting Braga II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fafe nicked a narrow win over Sporting Braga II 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 30% / 30% — and on the day Fafe made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Fafe had 52% of the ball to Sporting Braga II's 48%, shots finished 12-13.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga II led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Fafe and 1.20 for Sporting Braga II.

What was the final score of Fafe vs Sporting Braga II?

Fafe 1-0 Sporting Braga II in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fafe vs Sporting Braga II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fafe win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Fafe 40%, draw 30%, Sporting Braga II 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fafe), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fafe) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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