Atletico Nacional 1-3 Millonarios — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 5 Mar 2026

📅05/03/2026 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.62
Over 2.5
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.19
No
56%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.45
2-3 Goals
38%
1.7
4-5 Goals
19%
4.28
6+ Goals
9%
22.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
26%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
60%
-3.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+1.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.3pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Millonarios EU Bookmakers 19%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
1.64/0.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.54/1.75
-44% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -51%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
336 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 78%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
9.0 Crosses 17.0
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Millonarios
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.01 xG 0.79
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
310 Passes 241
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 3
28.09.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 0-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
17.06.2025 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
06.06.2025 Millonarios Millonarios 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
14.04.2025 Millonarios Millonarios 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
03.12.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
30.11.2024 Millonarios Millonarios 2-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
1-3
AWAY Millonarios
1.81 xG 1.56
73% Ball Possession 27%
17 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 0
439 Passes 126
87% Pass Accuracy 66%
24 Box Touches 11
37 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millonarios saw off Atletico Nacional 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

This one beat our numbers. Atletico Nacional carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 73% of the ball to Millonarios's 27%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.81 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millonarios led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.67 for Millonarios.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?

Atletico Nacional 1-3 Millonarios in the Copa Sudamericana on 05/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 56%, draw 26%, Millonarios 18%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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