Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Melbourne Victory 0-1 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics
Wellington Phoenix edged past Melbourne Victory 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Melbourne Victory had 49% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 51%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.33 to 1.89 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Wellington Phoenix's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Melbourne Victory and 1.17 for Wellington Phoenix.
What was the final score of Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?
Melbourne Victory 0-1 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory 52%, draw 22%, Wellington Phoenix 25%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.