Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Melbourne Victory 5-1 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics
Melbourne Victory swept aside Wellington Phoenix 5-1. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Melbourne Victory as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Melbourne Victory had 58% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 42%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.89 to 1.24.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Melbourne Victory and 0.83 for Wellington Phoenix.
What was the final score of Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?
Melbourne Victory 5-1 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 29/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory 58%, draw 24%, Wellington Phoenix 18%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.