Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory — Team-Based Signals
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Wellington Phoenix 2-3 Melbourne Victory — Actual Match Statistics
Melbourne Victory edged past Wellington Phoenix 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Melbourne Victory as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.
On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 45% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 55%, shots finished 7-22, expected goals 1.18 to 1.82.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 0.67 for Melbourne Victory.
What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?
Wellington Phoenix 2-3 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?
Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 27%, draw 29%, Melbourne Victory 44%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.