Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory — Team-Based Signals
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Wellington Phoenix 2-3 Melbourne Victory — Actual Match Statistics
Melbourne Victory edged past Wellington Phoenix 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Melbourne Victory as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 57% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 43%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.72 to 1.02.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 1.83 for Melbourne Victory.
What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?
Wellington Phoenix 2-3 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 06/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?
Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 30%, draw 22%, Melbourne Victory 48%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.