Leon 2-0 Atlas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 5 Apr 2026

Leon
2-0 HT 1-0
Atlas
📅05/04/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.99
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
3.48
6+ Goals
9%
14.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 32% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
44%
+0.8pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.8pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlas EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
1.54/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.36
-10% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
318 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 78%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
20.6 Crosses 17.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Atlas
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.10 xG 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
338 Passes 352
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.10.2025 Atlas Atlas 2-0 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK
19.01.2025 Atlas Atlas 1-2 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
24.10.2024 Leon Leon 0-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
19.02.2024 Atlas Atlas 0-1 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
25.10.2023 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 0-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
12.03.2023 Atlas Atlas 0-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
2-0
AWAY Atlas
1.54 xG 0.37
71% Ball Possession 29%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 3
513 Passes 162
85% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 10
23 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leon vs Atlas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon got the better of Atlas 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Leon as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Leon had 71% of the ball to Atlas's 29%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.54 to 0.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Leon and 0.67 for Atlas.

What was the final score of Leon vs Atlas?

Leon 2-0 Atlas in the Mexico - Primera on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Atlas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Leon 45%, draw 27%, Atlas 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leon), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Leon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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