Queretaro vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Queretaro v Toluca — Team-Based Signals
Queretaro vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 1-1
Queretaro
MEK
1-0
HT 1-0
Toluca
MEK
Queretaro 1-0 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics
Queretaro nicked a narrow win over Toluca 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
This one beat our numbers. Toluca carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Queretaro had 24% of the ball to Toluca's 76%, shots finished 10-23, expected goals 2.77 to 2.06.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Queretaro and 2.50 for Toluca.
What was the final score of Queretaro vs Toluca?
Queretaro 1-0 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Queretaro vs Toluca?
Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Queretaro 21%, draw 22%, Toluca 57%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.