Toluca vs Queretaro Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Queretaro — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Queretaro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 1-1
Queretaro
MEK
1-0
HT 1-0
Toluca
MEK
4-1
HT 2-0
Queretaro
MEK
Toluca 4-0 Queretaro — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca cruised past Queretaro 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 75%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (64%) landed while both teams to score (55%) missed.
On the day, Toluca had 65% of the ball to Queretaro's 35%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 2.07 to 0.61.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Toluca and 0.83 for Queretaro.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Queretaro?
Toluca 4-0 Queretaro in the Mexico - Primera on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Queretaro?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 75%, with the full match-result split Toluca 75%, draw 14%, Queretaro 11%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.