Cruz Azul 1-2 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 5 Apr 2026

📅05/04/2026 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
27%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.43
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.13
6+ Goals
9%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 32% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
42%
+4.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
27%
Away Win
31%
-3.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.8pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.34/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.31
+7% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +0%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
269 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 79%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
19.7 Crosses 15.3
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Pachuca
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.59 xG 1.29
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
410 Passes 275
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2025 Pachuca Pachuca 0-1 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
09.02.2025 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-1 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
29.09.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 2-4 HT 2-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
14.01.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 0-1 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
24.08.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
02.04.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 0-2 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
1-2
AWAY Pachuca
0.98 xG 1.06
62% Ball Possession 38%
20 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
377 Passes 204
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca squeezed past Cruz Azul 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cruz Azul at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 62% of the ball to Pachuca's 38%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 0.98 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cruz Azul and 0.83 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Pachuca?

Cruz Azul 1-2 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 47%, draw 26%, Pachuca 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✗ Under 2.5
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