Pachuca 0-1 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 14 Sep 2025

📅14/09/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
2.0
Over 2.5
41%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
3.53
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
3.04
6+ Goals
8%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.53 — our 33% vs market 21.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
18%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-0.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-1.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
46%
+12.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
54%
-12.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.5pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 42%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +27%
1.24/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.36
-5% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
332 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 79%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
18.0 Crosses 16.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.40 xG 1.59
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
276 Passes 392
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.02.2025 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-1 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
29.09.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 2-4 HT 2-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
14.01.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 0-1 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
24.08.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
02.04.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 0-2 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
10.07.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-2 HT 0-2 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
0-1
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.56 xG 1.29
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 5
330 Passes 329
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 13
25 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul nicked a narrow win over Pachuca 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Cruz Azul found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Pachuca had 50% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 50%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 1.56 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pachuca and 1.50 for Cruz Azul.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?

Pachuca 0-1 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 35%, draw 28%, Cruz Azul 37%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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