Toluca vs Puebla Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Puebla — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Puebla Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Puebla
MEK
1-2
HT 0-2
Toluca
MEK
1-1
HT 0-1
Puebla
MEK
Toluca 3-1 Puebla — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca beat Puebla 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.
On the day, Toluca had 61% of the ball to Puebla's 39%, shots finished 27-8, expected goals 1.92 to 1.49.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Toluca and 0.67 for Puebla.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Puebla?
Toluca 3-1 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 14/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Puebla?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Toluca 68%, draw 18%, Puebla 15%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.