Arsenal Tula 1-2 Fakel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 5 Apr 2026

📅05/04/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
41%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
Over 2.5
47%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.16
No
50%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.1pp
26%
Draw
31%
-4.6pp
41%
Away Win
37%
+3.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.9pp
50%
BTTS No
58%
-7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal Tula EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Fakel EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
0.82/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/0.83
-24% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +28%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
240 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal Tula
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Fakel
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
6 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.10.2025 Fakel Fakel 2-3 HT 1-1 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RKBL
08.09.2025 Fakel Fakel 1-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS1
25.09.2019 Fakel Fakel 1-2 HT 1-1 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal Tula
1-2
AWAY Fakel
52% Ball Possession 48%
5 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arsenal Tula vs Fakel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fakel nicked a narrow win over Arsenal Tula 2-1 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fakel as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Arsenal Tula had 52% of the ball to Fakel's 48%, shots finished 5-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Arsenal Tula had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Arsenal Tula and 1.33 for Fakel.

What was the final score of Arsenal Tula vs Fakel?

Arsenal Tula 1-2 Fakel in the Russia - FNL on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal Tula vs Fakel?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fakel win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Arsenal Tula 33%, draw 26%, Fakel 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fakel) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fakel) ✗ Under 2.5
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