Cerro 1-0 Defensor Sporting — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 5 Apr 2026

📅05/04/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.99
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
35%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.51
Over 2.5
42%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+4.9pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.3pp
35%
Away Win
40%
-5.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.6pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -10%
0.85/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/0.98
-25% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
245 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Defensor Sporting
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
12.10.2025 Cerro Cerro 1-0 HT 0-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
23.06.2025 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-1 HT 0-0 Cerro Cerro URU
15.04.2025 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 3-2 HT 2-1 Cerro Cerro URU
07.09.2024 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 1-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
26.02.2024 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 5-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
15.11.2023 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 1-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro
1-0
AWAY Defensor Sporting
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 7
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cerro vs Defensor Sporting
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro nicked a narrow win over Defensor Sporting 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 30% / 35%) promised a tight game; Cerro found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Cerro had 44% of the ball to Defensor Sporting's 56%, shots finished 13-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensor Sporting led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cerro and 2.00 for Defensor Sporting.

What was the final score of Cerro vs Defensor Sporting?

Cerro 1-0 Defensor Sporting in the Uruguay - Premier League on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro vs Defensor Sporting?

Before kick-off our model rated an Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Cerro 34%, draw 30%, Defensor Sporting 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Defensor Sporting) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Defensor Sporting) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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