Cerro vs Defensor Sporting Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Cerro v Defensor Sporting — Team-Based Signals
Cerro vs Defensor Sporting Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Defensor Sporting
URU
Cerro 1-0 Defensor Sporting — Actual Match Statistics
Cerro nicked a narrow win over Defensor Sporting 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (34% / 30% / 35%) promised a tight game; Cerro found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Cerro had 44% of the ball to Defensor Sporting's 56%, shots finished 13-14.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensor Sporting led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cerro and 2.00 for Defensor Sporting.
What was the final score of Cerro vs Defensor Sporting?
Cerro 1-0 Defensor Sporting in the Uruguay - Premier League on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Cerro vs Defensor Sporting?
Before kick-off our model rated an Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Cerro 34%, draw 30%, Defensor Sporting 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Defensor Sporting) went the other way.