Progreso 0-2 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 5 Apr 2026

📅05/04/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
14%
6.35
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
64%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.71
Over 2.5
48%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.33
No
55%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
5%
X/2
27%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
29%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
14%
Home Win
13%
+1.6pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.8pp
64%
Away Win
66%
-2.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
55%
-3.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
45%
+3.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
39%
+6.3pp
55%
BTTS No
61%
-6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 70%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -11%
0.44/2.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/0.81
-45% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -7%
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
262 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
0W-1D-5L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.08.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
02.02.2025 Progreso Progreso 1-3 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
27.11.2024 Progreso Progreso 1-5 HT 0-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
23.06.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-2 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
24.05.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 3-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
25.11.2021 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
0-2
AWAY CA Penarol
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Progreso vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol saw off Progreso 2-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Progreso had 38% of the ball to CA Penarol's 62%, shots finished 6-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Progreso and 2.50 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Progreso vs CA Penarol?

Progreso 0-2 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Progreso 14%, draw 22%, CA Penarol 64%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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