Cosenza Calcio 2-2 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 5 May 2024

Cosenza Calcio
2-2 HT 1-1
Spezia
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2023/2024

Cosenza Calcio vs Spezia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.64
Over 2.5
38%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.69
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.35
6+ Goals
8%
22.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.69 — our 33% vs market 31.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.36
1/2
5%
31.5
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
10%
5.97
X/2
12%
5.21
X/X
17%
3.87
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
18%
3.59
2/X
6%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+0.7pp
31%
Draw
31%
+0.6pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-1.3pp
62%
Under 2.5
57%
+5.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
43%
-5.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.2pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cosenza Calcio v Spezia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cosenza Calcio EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
1.29/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.10
+6% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
267 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
22.0 Crosses 18.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.2

Cosenza Calcio vs Spezia Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cosenza Calcio
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Spezia
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.45 xG 1.34
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
340 Passes 362
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Spezia Spezia 0-0 HT 0-0 Cosenza Calcio Cosenza Calcio İTB
10.07.2020 Spezia Spezia 5-1 HT 2-0 Cosenza Calcio Cosenza Calcio İTB
29.11.2019 Cosenza Calcio Cosenza Calcio 1-1 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
22.04.2019 Cosenza Calcio Cosenza Calcio 1-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
08.12.2018 Spezia Spezia 4-0 HT 1-0 Cosenza Calcio Cosenza Calcio İTB

Cosenza Calcio 2-2 Spezia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cosenza Calcio
2-2
AWAY Spezia
0.56 xG 3.64
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 31
5 Shots on Target 13
5 Corners 15
282 Passes 286
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 34
11 Crosses 41
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cosenza Calcio vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cosenza Calcio and Spezia couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 31% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cosenza Calcio had 48% of the ball to Spezia's 52%, shots finished 13-31, expected goals 0.56 to 3.64.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Spezia led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Cosenza Calcio and 2.00 for Spezia.

What was the final score of Cosenza Calcio vs Spezia?

Cosenza Calcio 2-2 Spezia in the Italy - Serie B on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cosenza Calcio vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Cosenza Calcio 33%, draw 31%, Spezia 36%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Spezia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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