Ternana 1-0 Catanzaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
43%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.21
Over 2.5
46%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.5
No
48%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
4.54
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
21%
2.9
6+ Goals
10%
8.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.54 — our 28% vs market 17.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.94
1/2
6%
24.0
1/X
7%
12.2
X/1
5%
6.38
X/2
13%
5.48
X/X
16%
5.2
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
24%
3.19
2/X
6%
12.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
34%
-5.9pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.7pp
43%
Away Win
40%
+3.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
41%
+12.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
59%
-12.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.8pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ternana EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Catanzaro EU Bookmakers 43%
-2% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +44% / +44%
1.25/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/1.87
-3% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +90% / -33%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
281 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 79%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
19.9 Crosses 12.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ternana
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Catanzaro
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.87 xG 2.38
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
248 Passes 398
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
29 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.08.2023 Catanzaro Catanzaro 2-1 HT 1-1 Ternana Ternana İTB
27.02.2021 Catanzaro Catanzaro 2-1 HT 1-0 Ternana Ternana İTC
01.11.2020 Ternana Ternana 5-1 HT 1-1 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTC
01.12.2019 Catanzaro Catanzaro 1-3 HT 0-1 Ternana Ternana İTC
01.04.2006 Ternana Ternana 0-2 HT 0-1 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
05.11.2005 Catanzaro Catanzaro 0-1 HT 0-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ternana
1-0
AWAY Catanzaro
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
243 Passes 512
82% Pass Accuracy 90%
POST-MATCH Ternana vs Catanzaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ternana squeezed past Catanzaro 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Catanzaro at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Ternana had 35% of the ball to Catanzaro's 65%, shots finished 12-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Ternana and 1.33 for Catanzaro.

What was the final score of Ternana vs Catanzaro?

Ternana 1-0 Catanzaro in the Italy - Serie B on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ternana vs Catanzaro?

Before kick-off our model rated an Catanzaro win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ternana 28%, draw 29%, Catanzaro 43%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Catanzaro), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Catanzaro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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