Ümraniyespor 2-0 Erzurumspor FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.71
Over 2.5
37%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.82
No
59%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.83
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.12
6+ Goals
8%
19.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 34% vs market 29.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.07
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
20%
4.78
X/2
11%
6.83
X/X
15%
4.01
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
12%
5.13
2/X
5%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.6pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.3pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.9pp
63%
Under 2.5
55%
+8.5pp
37%
Over 2.5
45%
-8.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
51%
-10.4pp
59%
BTTS No
49%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 32%
+7% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.57/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.11
+10% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
16.7 Crosses 16.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ümraniyespor
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.05 xG 1.80
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
273 Passes 264
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.12.2023 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-1 HT 0-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
13.02.2022 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 3-3 HT 2-1 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
14.09.2021 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 0-2 HT 0-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
18.07.2020 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 4-1 HT 2-0 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
28.12.2019 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-2 HT 0-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
15.05.2018 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-2 HT 0-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ümraniyespor
2-0
AWAY Erzurumspor FK
1.11 xG 1.61
43% Ball Possession 57%
4 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
293 Passes 428
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ümraniyespor vs Erzurumspor FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ümraniyespor beat Erzurumspor FK 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ümraniyespor as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ümraniyespor had 43% of the ball to Erzurumspor FK's 57%, shots finished 4-13, expected goals 1.11 to 1.61 — on chances, Erzurumspor FK could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzurumspor FK led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Ümraniyespor and 2.00 for Erzurumspor FK.

What was the final score of Ümraniyespor vs Erzurumspor FK?

Ümraniyespor 2-0 Erzurumspor FK in the Turkey - 1st Division on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ümraniyespor vs Erzurumspor FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ümraniyespor win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ümraniyespor 43%, draw 28%, Erzurumspor FK 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ümraniyespor), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ümraniyespor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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