Sakaryaspor 0-2 Tuzlaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 5 May 2024

Sakaryaspor
0-2 HT 0-0
Tuzlaspor
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Turkey - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Sakaryaspor vs Tuzlaspor Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.59
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.35
6+ Goals
9%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.59 — our 27% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.24
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.15
X/1
14%
4.09
X/2
9%
9.26
X/X
11%
5.08
2/1
8%
23.15
2/2
9%
6.59
2/X
10%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-3.7pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.6pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.4pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sakaryaspor v Tuzlaspor — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sakaryaspor EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Tuzlaspor EU Bookmakers 26%
+8% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.09/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.46
+13% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
350 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 72%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
21.3 Crosses 10.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7

Sakaryaspor vs Tuzlaspor Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sakaryaspor
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Tuzlaspor
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
1.47 xG 1.22
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
371 Passes 331
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.12.2023 Tuzlaspor 1-3 HT 1-1 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
28.01.2023 Tuzlaspor 2-3 HT 1-1 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
29.08.2022 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 2-0 HT 1-0 Tuzlaspor T1L
02.02.2020 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 2-1 HT 1-1 Tuzlaspor S2-K
21.09.2019 Tuzlaspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor S2-K

Sakaryaspor 0-2 Tuzlaspor — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sakaryaspor
0-2
AWAY Tuzlaspor
0.72 xG 0.43
71% Ball Possession 29%
17 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 4
458 Passes 148
85% Pass Accuracy 63%
36 Box Touches 11
47 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sakaryaspor vs Tuzlaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tuzlaspor beat Sakaryaspor 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sakaryaspor at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Sakaryaspor had 71% of the ball to Tuzlaspor's 29%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 0.72 to 0.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sakaryaspor had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sakaryaspor and 0.80 for Tuzlaspor.

What was the final score of Sakaryaspor vs Tuzlaspor?

Sakaryaspor 0-2 Tuzlaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sakaryaspor vs Tuzlaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sakaryaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sakaryaspor 49%, draw 26%, Tuzlaspor 25%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sakaryaspor) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sakaryaspor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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