Bandırmaspor 2-1 Keçiörengücü — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.53
Draw
29%
4.08
Away
28%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.14
6+ Goals
9%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.94 — our 30% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1.75
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
18.4
X/1
17%
3.56
X/2
8%
13.7
X/X
14%
6.29
2/1
7%
22.3
2/2
13%
10.95
2/X
7%
19.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
62%
-18.6pp
29%
Draw
22%
+7.2pp
28%
Away Win
17%
+11.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.2pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bandırmaspor EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Keçiörengücü EU Bookmakers 20%
-10% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
1.56/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.51
-4% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
390 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 75%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
17.7 Crosses 12.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bandırmaspor
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Keçiörengücü
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.22 xG 1.85
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
288 Passes 270
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.12.2023 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 1-3 HT 1-0 Bandırmaspor Bandırmaspor T1L
04.03.2023 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 3-1 HT 0-0 Bandırmaspor Bandırmaspor T1L
10.09.2022 Bandırmaspor Bandırmaspor 2-2 HT 0-2 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
01.05.2022 Bandırmaspor Bandırmaspor 0-2 HT 0-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
11.12.2021 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 3-2 HT 1-1 Bandırmaspor Bandırmaspor T1L
23.02.2021 Bandırmaspor Bandırmaspor 1-1 HT 0-1 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bandırmaspor
2-1
AWAY Keçiörengücü
1.71 xG 0.39
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 5
348 Passes 252
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
36 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bandırmaspor vs Keçiörengücü
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bandırmaspor nicked a narrow win over Keçiörengücü 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bandırmaspor as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Bandırmaspor had 55% of the ball to Keçiörengücü's 45%, shots finished 15-5, expected goals 1.71 to 0.39 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bandırmaspor's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Keçiörengücü led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bandırmaspor and 2.00 for Keçiörengücü.

What was the final score of Bandırmaspor vs Keçiörengücü?

Bandırmaspor 2-1 Keçiörengücü in the Turkey - 1st Division on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bandırmaspor vs Keçiörengücü?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bandırmaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Bandırmaspor 43%, draw 29%, Keçiörengücü 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bandırmaspor) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bandırmaspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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