Shelbourne 0-1 Waterford FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 5 May 2025

📅05/05/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.49
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.75
Over 2.5
54%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
2.13
No
46%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.85
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.77
6+ Goals
10%
16.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.77 — our 24% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.87
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
4%
17.6
X/1
18%
3.81
X/2
6%
13.0
X/X
12%
5.2
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
10%
11.85
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
20.4
Value flag · 2/X at 20.4 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
63%
-9.3pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.3pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
53%
-7.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
47%
+7.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
43%
+11.0pp
46%
BTTS No
57%
-11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shelbourne EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Waterford FC EU Bookmakers 18%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +9%
1.48/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.73
-25% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +6%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
418 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 205 · 68%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
22.1 Crosses 13.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shelbourne
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Waterford FC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.99 xG 0.87
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
394 Passes 248
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.02.2025 Waterford FC Waterford FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
18.10.2024 Shelbourne Shelbourne 3-1 HT 1-1 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
13.06.2024 Waterford FC Waterford FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
17.05.2024 Shelbourne Shelbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Waterford FC Waterford FC İRL
16.02.2024 Waterford FC Waterford FC 1-1 HT 1-0 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
16.10.2022 Waterford FC Waterford FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shelbourne
0-1
AWAY Waterford FC
2.09 xG 0.80
76% Ball Possession 24%
27 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 3
546 Passes 128
86% Pass Accuracy 61%
47 Box Touches 12
31 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Shelbourne vs Waterford FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Waterford FC edged past Shelbourne 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Shelbourne at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Shelbourne had 76% of the ball to Waterford FC's 24%, shots finished 27-11, expected goals 2.09 to 0.80 — on chances, Shelbourne could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shelbourne had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Shelbourne and 0.33 for Waterford FC.

What was the final score of Shelbourne vs Waterford FC?

Shelbourne 0-1 Waterford FC in the Ireland - Premier League on 05/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shelbourne vs Waterford FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shelbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Shelbourne 53%, draw 25%, Waterford FC 22%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Shelbourne) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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