Derry City 1-0 St Patricks — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 5 May 2025

📅05/05/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.54
Over 2.5
43%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.28
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
4.88
6+ Goals
8%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.04
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.15
X/1
14%
4.59
X/2
11%
7.15
X/X
12%
3.81
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
12%
5.99
2/X
9%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.8pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
61%
-4.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
39%
+4.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.2pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derry City EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY St Patricks EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +1%
1.27/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.03
-31% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
293 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
20.7 Crosses 19.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derry City
4W-0D-2L
AWAY St Patricks
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.01 xG 1.10
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
296 Passes 362
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2025 St Patricks St Patricks 2-0 HT 1-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
25.10.2024 St Patricks St Patricks 1-0 HT 1-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
21.07.2024 Derry City Derry City 3-0 HT 0-0 St Patricks St Patricks İRK
17.05.2024 St Patricks St Patricks 0-1 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
22.04.2024 Derry City Derry City 3-1 HT 1-0 St Patricks St Patricks İRL
01.03.2024 Derry City Derry City 2-1 HT 0-0 St Patricks St Patricks İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derry City
1-0
AWAY St Patricks
1.36 xG 0.54
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
278 Passes 353
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 11
10 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Derry City vs St Patricks
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derry City edged past St Patricks 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Derry City as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Derry City had 44% of the ball to St Patricks's 56%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 1.36 to 0.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Derry City and 0.83 for St Patricks.

What was the final score of Derry City vs St Patricks?

Derry City 1-0 St Patricks in the Ireland - Premier League on 05/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derry City vs St Patricks?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Derry City 43%, draw 28%, St Patricks 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derry City), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Derry City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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