Valerenga 1-1 Fredrikstad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 5 Jul 2025

Valerenga
1-1 HT 1-1
Fredrikstad
📅05/07/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Norway - Eliteserien – 2025

Valerenga vs Fredrikstad Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.47
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.58
6+ Goals
10%
13.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.82
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
14%
4.82
X/2
10%
7.29
X/X
15%
4.86
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.65
2/2
16%
5.34
2/X
5%
14.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.65 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.4pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valerenga v Fredrikstad — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valerenga EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Fredrikstad EU Bookmakers 31%
+3% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +11%
1.61/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.45
-4% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
359 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 73%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
19.7 Crosses 16.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 0.6

Valerenga vs Fredrikstad Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valerenga
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Fredrikstad
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.65 xG 1.41
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
341 Passes 284
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 33
27 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.04.2025 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 2-0 HT 1-0 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
06.10.2024 Valerenga Valerenga 0-1 HT 0-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOK
16.02.2024 Valerenga Valerenga 1-3 HT 0-2 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad HAZ
01.10.2012 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 1-2 HT 0-2 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
06.05.2012 Valerenga Valerenga 3-2 HT 3-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
31.10.2011 Valerenga Valerenga 1-2 HT 1-1 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR

Valerenga 1-1 Fredrikstad — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valerenga
1-1
AWAY Fredrikstad
1.40 xG 1.40
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
394 Passes 275
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 32
19 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Valerenga vs Fredrikstad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valerenga and Fredrikstad couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Valerenga at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Valerenga had 56% of the ball to Fredrikstad's 44%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 1.40 to 1.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fredrikstad led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Valerenga and 1.83 for Fredrikstad.

What was the final score of Valerenga vs Fredrikstad?

Valerenga 1-1 Fredrikstad in the Norway - Eliteserien on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valerenga vs Fredrikstad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valerenga win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Valerenga 41%, draw 27%, Fredrikstad 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Valerenga), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Valerenga) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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