Tallinna Kalev 0-2 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 5 Aug 2025

📅05/08/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.75
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
57%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
14%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
27%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
23%
-0.3pp
20%
Draw
23%
-2.5pp
57%
Away Win
54%
+2.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.7pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tallinna Kalev EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 58%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +27% / +27%
1.69/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.56/0.00
+40% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% /
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
290 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 434 · 87%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tallinna Kalev
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.06.2025 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 0-3 HT 0-2 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
13.04.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 2-2 HT 1-1 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
03.11.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 2-0 HT 2-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
01.09.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-0 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
28.06.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-1 HT 0-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
07.04.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 3-1 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tallinna Kalev
0-2
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tallinna Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parnu JK Vaprus got the better of Tallinna Kalev 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Parnu JK Vaprus as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tallinna Kalev had 42% of the ball to Parnu JK Vaprus's 58%, shots finished 8-19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tallinna Kalev had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Tallinna Kalev and 1.33 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of Tallinna Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Tallinna Kalev 0-2 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 05/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tallinna Kalev vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Tallinna Kalev 23%, draw 20%, Parnu JK Vaprus 57%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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