İskoçya 2-3 Polonya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 5 Sep 2024

İskoçya
2-3 HT 0-2
Polonya
📅05/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
UEFA Uluslar League – 2024/2025

İskoçya vs Polonya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
28%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.62
Over 2.5
47%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.59
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.54
6+ Goals
11%
24.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.47
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
12%
4.92
X/2
11%
5.93
X/X
13%
3.92
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
13%
4.53
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.7
Value flag · 2/X at 13.7 — our 11% vs market 4.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+1.0pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.2pp
28%
Away Win
31%
-2.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
58%
-5.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
42%
+5.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.8pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

İskoçya v Polonya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İskoçya EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Polonya EU Bookmakers 34%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +52% / +52%
2.36/0.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/0.91
+86% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / –
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
302 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 78%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
26.1 Crosses 15.0
0.3 Yellow Cards 3.0

İskoçya vs Polonya Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İskoçya
1W-3D-0L
AWAY Polonya
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.65 xG 1.87
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
377 Passes 363
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
24.03.2022 İskoçya İskoçya 1-1 HT 0-0 Polonya Polonya HAZ
08.10.2015 İskoçya İskoçya 2-2 HT 1-1 Polonya Polonya AVŞE
14.10.2014 Polonya Polonya 2-2 HT 1-1 İskoçya İskoçya AVŞE
05.03.2014 Polonya Polonya 0-1 HT 0-0 İskoçya İskoçya HAZ

İskoçya 2-3 Polonya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İskoçya
2-3
AWAY Polonya
0.95 xG 1.86
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
499 Passes 339
89% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH İskoçya vs Polonya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonya nicked a narrow win over İskoçya 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was İskoçya at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, İskoçya had 59% of the ball to Polonya's 41%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.95 to 1.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, İskoçya had the better of it with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for İskoçya and 1.25 for Polonya.

What was the final score of İskoçya vs Polonya?

İskoçya 2-3 Polonya in the UEFA Uluslar League on 05/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İskoçya vs Polonya?

Before kick-off our model rated a İskoçya win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split İskoçya 41%, draw 30%, Polonya 28%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (İskoçya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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