Portekiz 2-1 Hırvatistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 5 Sep 2024

📅05/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.07
Over 2.5
64%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.81
No
42%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
3.93
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
31%
3.15
6+ Goals
11%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.92
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.1
X/1
15%
3.78
X/2
6%
11.6
X/X
9%
5.81
2/1
8%
22.3
2/2
9%
8.92
2/X
4%
16.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
61%
-4.3pp
20%
Draw
22%
-1.7pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+6.0pp
36%
Under 2.5
44%
-8.0pp
64%
Over 2.5
56%
+8.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
51%
+7.0pp
42%
BTTS No
49%
-7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portekiz EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Hırvatistan EU Bookmakers 21%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +39% / +39%
3.18/0.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.72
+95% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +132% / +12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
425 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
33.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
14.7 Crosses 12.9
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portekiz
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Hırvatistan
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.23 xG 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
484 Passes 365
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
37 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.06.2024 Portekiz Portekiz 1-2 HT 0-1 Hırvatistan Hırvatistan HAZ
17.11.2020 Hırvatistan Hırvatistan 2-3 HT 1-0 Portekiz Portekiz AVUL
05.09.2020 Portekiz Portekiz 4-1 HT 1-0 Hırvatistan Hırvatistan AVUL
06.09.2018 Portekiz Portekiz 1-1 HT 1-1 Hırvatistan Hırvatistan HAZ
10.06.2013 Hırvatistan Hırvatistan 0-1 HT 0-1 Portekiz Portekiz HAZ
12.11.2005 Portekiz Portekiz 2-0 HT 1-0 Hırvatistan Hırvatistan HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portekiz
2-1
AWAY Hırvatistan
1.23 xG 0.81
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
540 Passes 538
93% Pass Accuracy 93%
20 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Portekiz vs Hırvatistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portekiz edged past Hırvatistan 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Portekiz as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Portekiz had 50% of the ball to Hırvatistan's 50%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.23 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portekiz had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Portekiz and 1.00 for Hırvatistan.

What was the final score of Portekiz vs Hırvatistan?

Portekiz 2-1 Hırvatistan in the UEFA Uluslar League on 05/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portekiz vs Hırvatistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portekiz win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Portekiz 56%, draw 20%, Hırvatistan 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Portekiz), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Portekiz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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