Azerbaycan 1-3 İsveç — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 5 Sep 2024

📅05/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.65
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
54%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.55
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.38
6+ Goals
11%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.55 — our 28% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
8.57
1/2
7%
23.15
1/X
6%
16.35
X/1 EV+ ✗
14%
10.85
X/2
11%
3.82
X/X
10%
5.31
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
36%
2.02
2/X
4%
15.45
Value flag · X/1 at 10.85 — our 14% vs market 5.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
18%
+7.9pp
20%
Draw
23%
-3.2pp
54%
Away Win
58%
-4.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.1pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Azerbaycan EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY İsveç EU Bookmakers 62%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-100% / +99% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
242 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 81%
12.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
12.3 Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Azerbaycan
1W-0D-1L
AWAY İsveç
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.66 xG 2.23
47% Ball Possession 53%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
286 Passes 320
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 42
7 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.11.2023 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan 3-0 HT 2-0 İsveç İsveç AVŞE
27.03.2023 İsveç İsveç 5-0 HT 1-0 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan AVŞE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Azerbaycan
1-3
AWAY İsveç
3.88 xG 4.04
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 30
9 Shots on Target 11
2 Corners 8
226 Passes 403
71% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 62
11 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Azerbaycan vs İsveç
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İsveç got the better of Azerbaycan 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had İsveç as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Azerbaycan had 39% of the ball to İsveç's 61%, shots finished 14-30, expected goals 3.88 to 4.04.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Azerbaycan and 2.50 for İsveç.

What was the final score of Azerbaycan vs İsveç?

Azerbaycan 1-3 İsveç in the UEFA Uluslar League on 05/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Azerbaycan vs İsveç?

Before kick-off our model rated an İsveç win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Azerbaycan 26%, draw 20%, İsveç 54%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İsveç), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İsveç) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVUL More UEFA Uluslar League
5 Sep 2024
21:45 Kuzey İrlanda vs Lüksemburg Analysis →
21:45 Estonya vs Slovakya Analysis →
21:45 İskoçya vs Polonya Analysis →
21:45 Portekiz vs Hırvatistan Analysis →
21:45 Belarus vs Bulgaristan Analysis →
21:45 Sırbistan vs İspanya Analysis →