İzlanda 5-0 Azerbaycan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 5 Sep 2025

📅05/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.47
Draw
18%
4.08
Away
17%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.41
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.23
6+ Goals
11%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 27% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.75
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.75
X/1
16%
3.83
X/2
5%
13.15
X/X
8%
5.74
2/1
10%
23.2
2/2
7%
11.4
2/X
5%
19.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
64%
+1.7pp
18%
Draw
21%
-3.7pp
17%
Away Win
15%
+2.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.3pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İzlanda EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Azerbaycan EU Bookmakers 18%
+28% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
3.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/2.24
+75% / -67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -32%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
366 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.2
Crosses 12.6
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İzlanda
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Azerbaycan
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
20.08.2008 İzlanda İzlanda 1-1 HT 0-0 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İzlanda
5-0
AWAY Azerbaycan
2.69 xG 0.48
71% Ball Possession 29%
14 Total Shots 2
7 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 2
608 Passes 197
89% Pass Accuracy 70%
33 Box Touches 6
28 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH İzlanda vs Azerbaycan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İzlanda cruised past Azerbaycan 5-0. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had İzlanda as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, İzlanda had 71% of the ball to Azerbaycan's 29%, shots finished 14-2, expected goals 2.69 to 0.48.

What was the final score of İzlanda vs Azerbaycan?

İzlanda 5-0 Azerbaycan in the World Cup Qualifiers on 05/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İzlanda vs Azerbaycan?

Before kick-off our model rated a İzlanda win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split İzlanda 65%, draw 18%, Azerbaycan 17%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İzlanda), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İzlanda) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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