Suzhou Dongwu 2-1 Qingdao Red Lions — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.8
Draw
32%
3.45
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.09
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.78
6+ Goals
7%
16.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 30% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
13%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
52%
-6.1pp
32%
Draw
26%
+6.1pp
23%
Away Win
23%
+0.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.5pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Suzhou Dongwu EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Qingdao Red Lions EU Bookmakers 26%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.13/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/0.88
+4% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +117% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
302 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 70%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
17.0 Crosses 18.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Suzhou Dongwu
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Qingdao Red Lions
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.42 xG 0.96
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
259 Passes 290
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 34
16 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 1
26.05.2024 Qingdao Red Lions Qingdao Red Lions 3-3 HT 1-3 Suzhou Dongwu Suzhou Dongwu ÇİN2
31.05.2023 Qingdao Red Lions Qingdao Red Lions 1-1 HT 1-0 Suzhou Dongwu Suzhou Dongwu ÇİNK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Suzhou Dongwu
2-1
AWAY Qingdao Red Lions
0.66 xG 0.24
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
422 Passes 214
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
12 Box Touches 6
16 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Suzhou Dongwu vs Qingdao Red Lions
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Suzhou Dongwu nicked a narrow win over Qingdao Red Lions 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Suzhou Dongwu as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Suzhou Dongwu had 62% of the ball to Qingdao Red Lions's 38%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 0.66 to 0.24.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Suzhou Dongwu and 2.00 for Qingdao Red Lions.

What was the final score of Suzhou Dongwu vs Qingdao Red Lions?

Suzhou Dongwu 2-1 Qingdao Red Lions in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Suzhou Dongwu vs Qingdao Red Lions?

Before kick-off our model rated a Suzhou Dongwu win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Suzhou Dongwu 45%, draw 32%, Qingdao Red Lions 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Suzhou Dongwu) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Suzhou Dongwu) ✗ Under 2.5
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