Salford City 1-0 AFC Wimbledon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.94
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
39%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.75
Over 2.5
38%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.93
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
3.97
6+ Goals
10%
18.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.93 — our 35% vs market 28.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.66
1/2
8%
28.0
1/X
10%
13.75
X/1
11%
6.26
X/2
17%
4.76
X/X
11%
4.33
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
14%
3.17
2/X
9%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
31%
+0.1pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.9pp
39%
Away Win
42%
-2.1pp
62%
Under 2.5
53%
+8.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
47%
-8.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.6pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salford City EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 45%
-10% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -24%
1.09/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.88
-17% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / -7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
236 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 70%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
19.7 Crosses 23.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salford City
1W-2D-1L
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.35 xG 1.20
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
352 Passes 234
74% Pass Accuracy 68%
18 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2024 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-0 HT 0-0 Salford City Salford City İN2
16.12.2023 Salford City Salford City 0-0 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
10.04.2023 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-3 HT 1-0 Salford City Salford City İN2
12.11.2022 Salford City Salford City 0-0 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salford City
1-0
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
0.44 xG 1.41
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
204 Passes 179
66% Pass Accuracy 62%
18 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salford City squeezed past AFC Wimbledon 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (31% / 29% / 39%) promised a tight game; Salford City found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Salford City had 51% of the ball to AFC Wimbledon's 49%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 0.44 to 1.41 — on chances, AFC Wimbledon could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Salford City and 0.75 for AFC Wimbledon.

What was the final score of Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon?

Salford City 1-0 AFC Wimbledon in the England - 2nd Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salford City vs AFC Wimbledon?

Before kick-off our model rated an AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Salford City 31%, draw 29%, AFC Wimbledon 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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