Arsenal 3-1 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 5 Oct 2024

Arsenal
3-1 HT 0-0
Southampton
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Arsenal vs Southampton Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.22
Draw
21%
5.71
Away
16%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.59
Over 2.5
64%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
2.03
No
46%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.76
2-3 Goals
35%
2.04
4-5 Goals
29%
2.61
6+ Goals
17%
6.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.35
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
28.5
X/1
14%
3.43
X/2
5%
27.5
X/X
6%
9.82
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.15
2/2
6%
20.9
2/X
5%
28.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
77%
-14.0pp
21%
Draw
14%
+6.1pp
16%
Away Win
8%
+7.7pp
36%
Under 2.5
35%
+0.9pp
64%
Over 2.5
65%
-0.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
45%
+8.8pp
46%
BTTS No
55%
-8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Southampton — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 11%
-1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -3%
2.44/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.93
+13% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -8%
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
510 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 74%
47.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
19.8 Crosses 14.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4

Arsenal vs Southampton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Southampton
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.68 xG 0.80
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
457 Passes 246
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
34 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.04.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 3-3 HT 1-2 Southampton Southampton İNP
23.10.2022 Southampton Southampton 1-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
16.04.2022 Southampton Southampton 1-0 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
11.12.2021 Arsenal Arsenal 3-0 HT 2-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
26.01.2021 Southampton Southampton 1-3 HT 1-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
23.01.2021 Southampton Southampton 1-0 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal FAK

Arsenal 3-1 Southampton — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
3-1
AWAY Southampton
2.83 xG 0.65
59% Ball Possession 41%
29 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
13 Corners 1
483 Passes 337
90% Pass Accuracy 85%
65 Box Touches 8
32 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal saw off Southampton 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%) came in.

On the day, Arsenal had 59% of the ball to Southampton's 41%, shots finished 29-8, expected goals 2.83 to 0.65.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Arsenal and 1.17 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Southampton?

Arsenal 3-1 Southampton in the England - Premier League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 63%, draw 21%, Southampton 16%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
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