Manchester City 3-2 Fulham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.3
Draw
21%
4.95
Away
17%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.43
Over 2.5
61%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.27
2-3 Goals
38%
1.98
4-5 Goals
29%
2.7
6+ Goals
13%
6.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.47
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
23.6
X/1
15%
3.47
X/2
4%
20.8
X/X
9%
8.49
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.85
2/2
6%
15.7
2/X
6%
23.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
72%
-10.4pp
21%
Draw
17%
+4.4pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+6.2pp
39%
Under 2.5
38%
+1.1pp
61%
Over 2.5
62%
-1.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.7pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester City EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Fulham EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
2.36/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/2.15
+33% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +23%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
483 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 78%
44.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
21.5 Crosses 14.8
1.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester City
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Fulham
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.48 xG 0.65
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
596 Passes 311
89% Pass Accuracy 82%
34 Box Touches 11
13 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2024 Fulham Fulham 0-4 HT 0-1 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
02.09.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 5-1 HT 2-1 Fulham Fulham İNP
30.04.2023 Fulham Fulham 1-2 HT 1-2 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
05.11.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 2-1 HT 1-1 Fulham Fulham İNP
05.02.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 4-1 HT 2-1 Fulham Fulham FAK
13.03.2021 Fulham Fulham 0-3 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester City
3-2
AWAY Fulham
1.57 xG 2.60
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
575 Passes 392
91% Pass Accuracy 87%
39 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Manchester City vs Fulham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City nicked a narrow win over Fulham 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Manchester City had 58% of the ball to Fulham's 42%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 1.57 to 2.60 — on chances, Fulham could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Manchester City and 0.67 for Fulham.

What was the final score of Manchester City vs Fulham?

Manchester City 3-2 Fulham in the England - Premier League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester City vs Fulham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 62%, draw 21%, Fulham 17%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Manchester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
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