Leicester City 1-0 Bournemouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
40%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.18
Over 2.5
58%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.56
No
42%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.38
2-3 Goals
37%
1.88
4-5 Goals
28%
2.95
6+ Goals
13%
8.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.92
1/2
7%
22.3
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
13%
7.37
X/2
13%
4.7
X/X
13%
5.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
32.5
2/2
21%
2.64
2/X
6%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 32.5 — our 6% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
29%
+6.2pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.1pp
40%
Away Win
46%
-6.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
42%
-0.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
58%
+0.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.1pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leicester City EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 50%
+1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +5%
1.20/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.43
+8% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -14%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
299 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 80%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
15.0 Crosses 15.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leicester City
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Bournemouth
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.46 xG 1.60
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
437 Passes 345
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.02.2024 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-1 HT 0-0 Leicester City Leicester City FAK
08.04.2023 Leicester City Leicester City 0-1 HT 0-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
08.10.2022 Bournemouth Bournemouth 2-1 HT 0-1 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
12.07.2020 Bournemouth Bournemouth 4-1 HT 0-1 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
31.08.2019 Leicester City Leicester City 3-1 HT 2-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
30.03.2019 Leicester City Leicester City 2-0 HT 1-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leicester City
1-0
AWAY Bournemouth
0.79 xG 2.16
44% Ball Possession 56%
6 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 9
280 Passes 362
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 34
6 Crosses 30
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Leicester City vs Bournemouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leicester City squeezed past Bournemouth 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 25% / 40% — and on the day Leicester City made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leicester City had 44% of the ball to Bournemouth's 56%, shots finished 6-19, expected goals 0.79 to 2.16 — the balance of chances actually favoured Bournemouth.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Leicester City and 1.33 for Bournemouth.

What was the final score of Leicester City vs Bournemouth?

Leicester City 1-0 Bournemouth in the England - Premier League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leicester City vs Bournemouth?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bournemouth win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Leicester City 35%, draw 25%, Bournemouth 40%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bournemouth) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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