Gamba Osaka 2-1 Consadole Sapporo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
22%
3.8
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.22
6+ Goals
13%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.8 — our 22% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.87
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
11%
4.88
X/2
11%
6.98
X/X
8%
4.84
2/1
6%
24.45
2/2
14%
4.78
2/X
8%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.5pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.2pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.0pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Consadole Sapporo EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -6%
1.69/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.44
-8% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -30%
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
432 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 81%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
17.9 Crosses 17.4
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gamba Osaka
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Consadole Sapporo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.01 xG 1.93
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
348 Passes 374
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 31
11 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.04.2024 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo 1-0 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
02.09.2023 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo 4-0 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
18.03.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-2 HT 0-2 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo JAP
26.06.2022 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo 1-0 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
04.05.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-0 HT 0-0 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo JAP
02.10.2021 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-5 HT 0-3 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gamba Osaka
2-1
AWAY Consadole Sapporo
2.83 xG 0.63
65% Ball Possession 35%
20 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
539 Passes 246
85% Pass Accuracy 70%
34 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 11
POST-MATCH Gamba Osaka vs Consadole Sapporo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka edged past Consadole Sapporo 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gamba Osaka as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Gamba Osaka had 65% of the ball to Consadole Sapporo's 35%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 2.83 to 0.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Gamba Osaka's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Consadole Sapporo led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Gamba Osaka and 2.17 for Consadole Sapporo.

What was the final score of Gamba Osaka vs Consadole Sapporo?

Gamba Osaka 2-1 Consadole Sapporo in the Japan - J1 League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gamba Osaka vs Consadole Sapporo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gamba Osaka 45%, draw 23%, Consadole Sapporo 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gamba Osaka), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✓ Over 2.5
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