Machida Zelvia 1-4 Kawasaki Frontale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.87
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
20%
3.18
6+ Goals
11%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.87 — our 27% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.03
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
8%
12.55
X/1
10%
5.04
X/2
11%
6.59
X/X
11%
4.91
2/1
13%
24.45
2/2
11%
4.42
2/X
8%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
43%
+0.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
30%
Away Win
30%
-0.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.4pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -20%
1.33/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.36
+12% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -20%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
328 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 80%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
24.5 Crosses 17.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Machida Zelvia
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.48 xG 1.30
30% Ball Possession 70%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 8
158 Passes 473
67% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2024 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 0-1 HT 0-1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
1-4
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
0.50 xG 3.02
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 26
1 Shots on Target 13
4 Corners 4
204 Passes 446
73% Pass Accuracy 86%
27 Box Touches 47
18 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kawasaki Frontale ran out comfortable winners over Machida Zelvia 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Machida Zelvia at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 36% of the ball to Kawasaki Frontale's 64%, shots finished 10-26, expected goals 0.50 to 3.02.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Machida Zelvia 1-4 Kawasaki Frontale in the Japan - J1 League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 44%, draw 27%, Kawasaki Frontale 30%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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