FC Tokyo 1-1 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
25%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.19
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
3.03
6+ Goals
12%
9.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.49
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
16%
4.53
X/2
6%
8.01
X/X
10%
5.28
2/1
10%
22.3
2/2
12%
5.53
2/X
11%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-1.2pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.1pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-0.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.5pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.69/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.52
+3% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / -12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 78%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
18.5 Crosses 15.7
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tokyo
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.22 xG 1.32
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
396 Passes 348
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
31.05.2024 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-1 HT 0-1 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
22.05.2024 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JLK
23.09.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 3-2 HT 0-2 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
01.04.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
26.06.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 5-0 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
08.05.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-1 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tokyo
1-1
AWAY Sagan Tosu
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 7
POST-MATCH FC Tokyo vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tokyo and Sagan Tosu couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was FC Tokyo at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, FC Tokyo had 60% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 40%, shots finished 17-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sagan Tosu led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for FC Tokyo and 1.67 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of FC Tokyo vs Sagan Tosu?

FC Tokyo 1-1 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J1 League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tokyo vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tokyo win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split FC Tokyo 48%, draw 27%, Sagan Tosu 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Tokyo), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Tokyo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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