Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 Yokohama F. Marinos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 5 Oct 2024

Kashiwa Reysol
1-0 HT 1-0
Yokohama F. Marinos
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Kashiwa Reysol vs Yokohama F. Marinos Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.59
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.46
No
49%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.9
2-3 Goals
37%
2.06
4-5 Goals
23%
2.59
6+ Goals
16%
5.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.37
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
15%
4.69
X/2 EV+ ✗
14%
8.23
X/X
9%
6.35
2/1
7%
19.95
2/2
12%
5.1
2/X
6%
13.5
Value flag · X/2 at 8.23 — our 14% vs market 8.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-6.7pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.7pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+10.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-10.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
64%
-13.2pp
49%
BTTS No
36%
+13.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kashiwa Reysol v Yokohama F. Marinos — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos EU Bookmakers 30%
-12% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +13%
1.43/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.62
-27% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / -23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
356 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 80%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
20.2 Crosses 19.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.6

Kashiwa Reysol vs Yokohama F. Marinos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.56 xG 1.81
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
247 Passes 463
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
29.05.2024 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 4-0 HT 2-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
02.09.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 2-0 HT 0-0 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
10.06.2023 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 4-3 HT 2-1 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
25.06.2022 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 4-0 HT 3-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
27.02.2022 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 3-1 HT 1-1 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
03.07.2021 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-2 HT 0-0 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP

Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 Yokohama F. Marinos — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
1-0
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos
1.27 xG 0.54
32% Ball Possession 68%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
241 Passes 573
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
27 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kashiwa Reysol vs Yokohama F. Marinos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashiwa Reysol squeezed past Yokohama F. Marinos 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kashiwa Reysol as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kashiwa Reysol had 32% of the ball to Yokohama F. Marinos's 68%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.27 to 0.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Yokohama F. Marinos led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 2.50 for Yokohama F. Marinos.

What was the final score of Kashiwa Reysol vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 Yokohama F. Marinos in the Japan - J1 League on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashiwa Reysol vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Kashiwa Reysol 44%, draw 24%, Yokohama F. Marinos 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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