Houston Dynamo 2-4 San Diego — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
44%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
2.21
Over
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1
26%
4.28
2-3
41%
1.87
4-5
22%
2.87
6+
11%
8.33
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.97
1/2
8%
23.55
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
12%
6.36
X/2
9%
5.61
X/X
12%
5.38
2/1
5%
26.0
2/2
27%
3.27
2/X
4%
12.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.55 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
34%
Home Win
35%
-1.1pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.1pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+4.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.7pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Houston Dynamo The Market 39%
Head to Head
AWAY San Diego The Market 43%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.53/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/2.23
-8% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
353 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 81%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
16.1 Crosses 11.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Houston Dynamo
1W-0D-0L
AWAY San Diego
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.62 xG 1.67
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 5
359 Passes 527
86% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 37
5 Crosses 23
6 Yellow Cards 1
06.07.2025 San Diego San Diego 3-4 HT 1-2 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Houston Dynamo
2-4
AWAY San Diego
2.32 xG 2.21
34% Ball Possession 66%
17 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 7
217 Passes 476
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Houston Dynamo vs San Diego
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Diego beat Houston Dynamo 4-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had San Diego as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Houston Dynamo had 34% of the ball to San Diego's 66%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 2.32 to 2.21.

What was the final score of Houston Dynamo vs San Diego?

Houston Dynamo 2-4 San Diego in the USA - Major League on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Houston Dynamo vs San Diego?

Before kick-off our model rated an San Diego win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Houston Dynamo 34%, draw 22%, San Diego 43%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (San Diego), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (San Diego) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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