Nomme JK Kalju 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.57
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.23
Over 2.5
61%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.66
No
39%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
59%
-1.8pp
20%
Draw
22%
-1.6pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+3.2pp
39%
Under 2.5
41%
-2.1pp
61%
Over 2.5
59%
+2.1pp
61%
BTTS Yes
56%
+5.1pp
39%
BTTS No
44%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nomme JK Kalju EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 22%
-7% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +8%
2.29/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.44
+20% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +76% / +23%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
432 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nomme JK Kalju
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
10.08.2025 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 1-2 HT 0-1 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
27.06.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 2-2 HT 1-2 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju EST1
01.03.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-3 HT 0-1 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju EST1
09.11.2024 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 2-1 HT 2-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
15.09.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-4 HT 0-3 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju EST1
03.07.2024 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 4-2 HT 2-1 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nomme JK Kalju
1-0
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nomme JK Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nomme JK Kalju squeezed past Parnu JK Vaprus 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nomme JK Kalju as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nomme JK Kalju had 58% of the ball to Parnu JK Vaprus's 42%, shots finished 20-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nomme JK Kalju had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Nomme JK Kalju and 1.17 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of Nomme JK Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Nomme JK Kalju 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nomme JK Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nomme JK Kalju win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Nomme JK Kalju 57%, draw 20%, Parnu JK Vaprus 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nomme JK Kalju) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nomme JK Kalju) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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