ES Tunis 1-0 Etoile Du Sahel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.49
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
11%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.59
Over 2.5
38%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.51
No
62%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
36%
2.35
2-3 Goals
44%
1.73
4-5 Goals
13%
4.6
6+ Goals
7%
26.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.35 — our 36% vs market 34.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
20%
X/2
3%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
64%
+3.0pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.2pp
11%
Away Win
12%
-1.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.9pp
38%
BTTS Yes
36%
+2.0pp
62%
BTTS No
64%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ES Tunis EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Etoile Du Sahel EU Bookmakers 15%
+2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.60/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.31/1.58
+7% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / -4%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
314 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ES Tunis
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Etoile Du Sahel
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.09 xG 1.14
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
442 Passes 247
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.02.2025 ES Tunis ES Tunis 3-0 HT 2-0 Etoile Du Sahel Etoile Du Sahel TUN1
03.11.2024 Etoile Du Sahel Etoile Du Sahel 0-2 HT 0-0 ES Tunis ES Tunis TUN1
12.05.2024 ES Tunis ES Tunis 3-2 HT 1-1 Etoile Du Sahel Etoile Du Sahel TUN
10.03.2024 Etoile Du Sahel Etoile Du Sahel 0-1 HT 0-0 ES Tunis ES Tunis TUN
24.02.2024 Etoile Du Sahel Etoile Du Sahel 0-2 HT 0-2 ES Tunis ES Tunis AŞL
25.11.2023 ES Tunis ES Tunis 2-0 HT 0-0 Etoile Du Sahel Etoile Du Sahel AŞL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ES Tunis
1-0
AWAY Etoile Du Sahel
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH ES Tunis vs Etoile Du Sahel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ES Tunis edged past Etoile Du Sahel 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had ES Tunis as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, ES Tunis had 55% of the ball to Etoile Du Sahel's 45%, shots finished 13-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, ES Tunis had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for ES Tunis and 0.33 for Etoile Du Sahel.

What was the final score of ES Tunis vs Etoile Du Sahel?

ES Tunis 1-0 Etoile Du Sahel in the Tunisia - 1st Division on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ES Tunis vs Etoile Du Sahel?

Before kick-off our model rated a ES Tunis win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split ES Tunis 66%, draw 23%, Etoile Du Sahel 11%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ES Tunis), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (ES Tunis) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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